The global art market is poised for its second straight year of declines, as demand for the top trophy works wanes and a new generation of buyers favors lower-priced pieces, according to a new survey.
Auction sales in the first six months at Christie’s, Sotheby’s, Phillips and Bonhams fell 26% from 2023 and 36% from the market peak in 2021, according to The Art Basel and UBS Survey of Global Collecting. The number of wealthy collectors surveyed who plan to purchase art in the next year dropped to 43% from over half in 2023. At the same time, the number who plan to sell increased to 55% — meaning there are more likely sellers than buyers in the market.
“For the biggest spenders, there has been a moderating in their spending or slowing of their pace,” said Paul Donovan, chief economist of UBS Global Wealth Management. “They’re taking a more considered approach.”
As the art world prepares for the big auctions in New York in November and Art Basel Miami Beach in December, dealers, galleries and auctioneers are hoping for a post-election rebound.
There are some bright spots. The vast majority (91%) of wealthy collectors were “optimistic” about the global art market’s performance over the next six months, up from 77% at the end of 2023, the survey said. That’s a larger share than were optimistic about the stock market, at 88%. Only 3% of high-net-worth collectors are pessimistic about the art market’s short-term future.
The median spending on art by wealthy collectors remains stable at around $50,000 a year, according to the survey. Over three-quarters of wealthy collectors surveyed had purchased a painting in both 2023 and the first half of 2024.
Yet a broad array of measures — from buyer interest to online sales — point to another year of declines or, at best, flat sales. Dealers and auction experts say geopolitical concerns (especially in the Middle East and Ukraine) along with economic weakness in Europe and China are draining buyer confidence. Higher interest rates also raised the opportunity cost of buying art, since wealthy collectors could earn an easy 5% or more from cash and Treasurys.
Just as in the classic car market, the art market is going through a generational shift that’s created a mismatch between supply and demand. Older collectors are downsizing their collection by selling off pricey but not masterpiece-level works. Younger collectors, mainly Gen Xers and millennials, are coming into the market to replace them, but they’re buying more affordable, more modern work from galleries and art shows.
“2024 suggests that rather than creating a supply-driven boom in value as they may have done in other years, trends towards greater selling will likely primarily affect sales volumes, with collectors tending to sell from the bottom of their collections, deaccessioning more but lower-value works, and advisors reportedly focused on ‘streamlining client collections’ with the disposal of more unwanted or insignificant artworks rather than trying to capture price appreciation,” the UBS report said.
Dealers say the diverging paths of the various generations has led to an oversupply of seven- and eight-figure Impressionist and Abstract works. According to the survey, the high end of the art market, or works priced at $10 million or more, was the strongest before 2022. Now, it’s the weakest.
